Category: Politics and Government

Repurposing verse

Sec Def Hegseth is evidently out on a “Send Me” tour telling people how the bible justifies all manner of war and destruction. The current video has him quoting Isaiah.

Using “send me” as a slogan for literal war against ideological or religious enemies rips v. 8 out of its literary and theological setting. Isaiah 6:1–13 is a prophetic commissioning narrative, not a military commission. The chapter’s structure is important: vv. 1–4 present Isaiah’s throne-room vision of God’s holiness; vv. 5–7 move to Isaiah’s confession of uncleanness and ritual purification; only then, in v. 8, does the divine question “Whom shall I send?” appear, to which Isaiah responds, “Here am I; send me.” In context, the verb “send” marks prophetic dispatch—Isaiah is commissioned as a spokesman, not as an agent of physical coercion.

That becomes explicit in vv. 9–13, where the content of his mission is to speak a message of judgment. Isaiah is told the people of Judah will hear but not understand. Will see but not perceive.  He is not being sent to win a campaign or wage violence; he is being sent to proclaim an unwelcome truth in the face of disbelief, judgment, and national crisis. It is an especially strange prooftext for militarized rhetoric because Isaiah is sent on a mission defined, at least from a human perspective, by rejection rather than success. The point of Isaiah 6 is not heroic conquest but prophetic witness under judgment.

In parallel with the passage’s description of those who “hear but do not understand,” Hegseth seems to read but not comprehend: he extracts words from the text and repurposes them to sanctify his own commitments without reckoning with what the passage actually means.

Corporate Greed?

Corporate greed is an easy, convenient answer to why things are so expensive … but I’ve tracked profits and revenue for the global “big oil” companies for a while now. Other than Armaco, and generally Petrobras, profits are under 10% of revenue. “Record profits” seem, generally, to come from record sales. We’re not going through record high profit percentages.

Now, a company that “only” profited five billion dollars on 380b isn’t doing badly and could probably have gotten by if they only made 2 million – but that makes for an interesting study. Say oil is $100 per barrel. 380 billion dollars is 3.8 billion barrels sold (yes, I know many of these companies have other lines of business. This is a thought experiment, not a regulated financial filing). If they earned three billion dollars less that year, the price per barrel would only drop $0.79. Under 1% change. Now, if Armaco had only profited 3.4 billion last year instead of 93.4b, that would be a $20/barrel drop.

Raw data:

Company 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006
Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B) Revenue ($B) Net profit ($B)
1. Saudi Aramco 446 93.4 481 106.2 495 121.3 604 161.1 400 110.0 230 49.0 330 88.2 356 111.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
2. PetroChina 399 21.9 409 22.9 426 22.8 481 22.2 405 14.3 280 2.3 364 10.4 356 7.9 298 3.4 244 0.9 277 5.7 371 17.4 365 20.9 348 18.2 298 20.6 216 20.6 149 15.1 155 16.5 110 18.4 86 17.9
3. Sinopec 388 4.4 428 7.0 454 8.5 493 9.9 435 9.5 305 4.8 430 8.3 437 9.2 349 7.6 291 7.0 324 5.3 459 8.8 465 10.3 457 10.1 388 9.8 283 9.3 197 8.6 209 6.8 157 7.0 131 6.4
4. ExxonMobil 334 28.8 350 33.7 345 36.0 414 55.7 286 23.0 182 -22.4 265 14.3 279 20.8 290 19.7 227 7.8 260 16.2 412 32.5 438 32.6 481 44.9 486 41.1 383 30.5 311 19.3 477 45.2 405 40.6 378 39.5
5. Shell 274 17.8 289 16.1 323 19.4 386 42.3 273 20.1 183 -21.7 352 15.8 397 23.4 312 13.0 240 4.6 272 1.9 431 14.9 460 16.4 482 26.7 484 30.8 378 20.1 285 12.5 458 26.3 356 31.3 319 25.4
6. TotalEnergies 201 13.1 214 15.8 237 21.4 284 20.5 206 16.0 140 -7.2 200 11.3 209 11.4 171 8.6 150 6.2 165 5.1 236 4.2 251 11.2 257 14.7 257 17.1 212 14.1 183 11.7 264 20.4 217 18.0 193 15.8
7. BP 189 0.1 189 0.4 210 15.2 241 -2.5 158 7.6 180 -20.3 277 4.0 299 9.4 240 3.4 183 0.1 223 -6.5 354 3.8 379 23.5 387 11.0 376 25.2 297 -3.7 246 16.6 361 21.2 274 20.8 254 22.3
8. Chevron 189 12.5 203 17.7 201 21.4 246 35.5 162 15.6 95 -5.5 147 2.9 166 14.8 142 9.2 114 -0.5 138 4.6 212 19.2 229 21.4 242 26.2 254 26.9 205 19.0 172 10.5 273 23.9 221 18.7 210 17.1
9. Rosneft 101 3.6 109 11.7 107 14.9 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 92 n/a 63 n/a n/a n/a n/a 11.1 n/a 6.5 n/a n/a
10. Petrobras 89 19.6 91 7.5 102 24.9 124 36.6 84 19.9 54 -1.1 77 10.2 85 7.2 89 0.1 81 -4.0 97 -10.0 144 -9.0 141 10.9 144 10.9 146 20.0 121 20.0 91 14.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

Data as available. Publicly traded companies in US and Europe are far more apt to have published , audited, probably somewhat accurate data.

The Third Term

I keep hearing “jokes” (and now more serious statements) about Trump’s third term & how they’ve got ways to achieve it … I think there are:

  1. Run as VP – I’m sure they’d call it something else to avoid “insulting” dude, but this has the advantage of all the campaigning and fund raising fun. Pres steps down, VP assumes presidency. Wasn’t elected as president, and I’m sure there would be a lot of legal challenges to clarify the generally accepted belief that a former president cannot be VP. But it’s going to end up as a court decision.
  2. Get voted in as speaker of the house – risks not winning the house, but you were absolutely not elected to the office of president. And I don’t see anything in the constitution or law that explicitly states a two term president cannot be in the line of succession.
  3. Have a cohort run on the “I do what he tells me to” platform. I’ve long thought we could start to move away from representative democracy to technology-facilitated direct democracy by having candidates run on the platform of a platform that allows constituents to vote on every bill. I, your so-called representative, will vote in whatever way the voters say to vote. There’s no law about how elected officials make decisions – both taking input from direct voting of the masses or just doing whatever the cannot-run-for-office-again former president says are your decision.

Now, if I were trying to be a three-term president, I might combine #3 with being elected as speaker of the house. Now I control two branches of the government — legislation isn’t coming to the floor unless I OK it, and I tell the acting president to sign it.

Disingenuous outrage

Those partaking in the disingenuous outrage about the Biden pardon (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/12/02/hunter-biden-presidential-pardon-comparisons/) want to ignore the very loud call to partake in witch hunts against the current administration, their families, their friends, their supporters. And the fact that some making these calls now have the means to bring them about. Real witch hunts.

From the article: “The Nixon pardon is the only precedent in modern times for such a broad pardon, which purports to insulate Hunter Biden from prosecution for crimes that have not even been charged,” said Margaret Love, who served as U.S. pardon attorney under Bush and Bill Clinton.

Insulation is the entire point — he won’t spend the next four (or more) years paying lawyers to defend him against whatever nonsense partisan DoJ officials dream up.

Bullet Ballots

We’ve seen posts from a few people questioning the integrity of the election results. Some are vague — the fact that Republican operatives were able to copy data from voting machines and then spend a few years possibly looking at how to exploit them is certainly a valid concern, but there’s not data available to prove or dispute this. One, however, has analysis of votes cast. https://substack.com/inbox/post/151721941 from Stephen Spoonamore.

So I started pulling numbers — drop-off votes, I presume, are where the presidential candidate far outperformed down-ballot same-party candidates. That seems … plausible. A high number of “bullet ballots”, however, could be worrisome. And that, it seems, could be constructed from public data. How many people voted for president? How many voted for a Senator? Now, this doesn’t work if the state didn’t have a Senate election. (NC had a governor race, so I’m including that as well). I’m sure some people show up to vote for the top and are done. Spoonamore even says this happens – they’ve got stats for previous elections.

Do the number of people who voted for someone as the president v/s the number of people who voted for someone for senate fall outside a reasonable range?

State  Senate – Repub   Senate – Dem   Senate – Total   Pres – Repub   Pres – Dem   Pres – Total   %R   %D   %Tot   Pres Party   Notes 
NJ                 1,767,773             2,151,322              4,015,343           1,966,571          2,218,074            4,268,422 10.109% 3.009% 5.93% D 86% reporting senate, 91% reporting pres
RI                    195,919                 293,288                 489,207               214,406              285,156                510,749 8.622% -2.852% 4.22% D
IN                 1,659,416             1,097,061              2,829,710           1,720,347          1,163,587            2,933,684 3.542% 5.717% 3.54% R
CA                 6,303,942             9,026,904           15,330,846           6,072,371          9,266,468          15,842,804 -3.814% 2.585% 3.23% D
CT                    679,799             1,002,049              1,711,215               739,638              994,549            1,763,712 8.090% -0.754% 2.98% D
OH                 2,812,778             2,599,761              5,602,804           3,180,116          2,533,699            5,765,017 11.551% -2.607% 2.81% R
NY                 3,155,521             4,491,802              7,686,522           3,484,126          4,413,632            7,897,758 9.431% -1.771% 2.67% D
ME                    277,873                   84,819                 799,861               372,323              431,915                821,382 25.368% 80.362% 2.62% D Independent won Senate race
WA                 1,549,187             2,252,578              3,801,765           1,530,924          2,245,849            3,898,837 -1.193% -0.300% 2.49% D
NM                    405,995                 497,346                 903,341               423,405              478,813                923,458 4.112% -3.871% 2.18% D
DE                    197,742                 283,273                 500,750               214,351              289,758                511,697 7.749% 2.238% 2.14% D
WY                    198,371                   63,706                 262,077               192,633                70,527                267,353 -2.979% 9.671% 1.97% R
TN                 1,916,591             1,027,428              3,005,522           1,964,499          1,055,069            3,062,922 2.439% 2.620% 1.87% R
MN                 1,291,725             1,792,474              3,186,151           1,519,032          1,656,979            3,240,913 14.964% -8.177% 1.69% D
UT                    914,667                 464,504              1,463,139               883,768              562,549            1,487,882 -3.496% 17.429% 1.66% R
NC                 2,241,308             3,069,506              5,591,558           2,898,428          2,715,380            5,679,658 22.672% -13.041% 1.55% R Governor – Mark Robinson race
MI                 2,693,680             2,712,686              5,577,183           2,816,636          2,736,533            5,662,504 4.365% 0.871% 1.51% R
NH*                    434,857                 360,144                 811,120               395,346              417,544                822,528 -9.994% 13.747% 1.39% D Governor
NV                    677,046                 701,105              1,464,728               751,205              705,197            1,484,840 9.872% 0.580% 1.35% R
NE                    498,228                 435,743                 933,971               563,866              369,819                946,041 11.641% -17.826% 1.28% R
FL                 5,977,706             4,603,077           10,757,415           6,110,125          4,683,038          10,893,547 2.167% 1.707% 1.25% R
AZ                 1,595,761             1,676,335              3,347,964           1,770,242          1,582,860            3,389,319 9.856% -5.905% 1.22% R
MO                 1,646,686             1,236,505              2,959,514           1,750,625          1,199,751            2,991,373 5.937% -3.063% 1.07% R
MS                    761,833                 450,718              1,212,551               746,305              465,357            1,225,239 -2.081% 3.146% 1.04% R
VA                 2,019,822             2,416,698              4,436,520           2,075,009          2,335,076            4,482,177 2.660% -3.495% 1.02% D
PA                 3,399,571             3,384,431              6,963,694           3,543,609          3,423,287            7,034,768 4.065% 1.135% 1.01% R
MA                 1,365,445             2,041,693              3,419,392           1,251,308          2,126,545            3,453,459 -9.121% 3.990% 0.99% D
VT                    116,512                 229,542                 363,234               119,392              235,792                366,399 2.412% 2.651% 0.86% D
WI                 1,643,692             1,672,647              3,387,420           1,697,784          1,668,077            3,415,154 3.186% -0.274% 0.81% R
TX                 5,990,744             5,031,479           11,289,280           6,393,598          4,835,297          11,380,171 6.301% -4.057% 0.80% R
WV                    514,079                 207,548                 756,925               533,556              214,309                762,390 3.650% 3.155% 0.72% R
ND                    241,569                 121,602                 363,171               246,505              112,327                365,059 2.002% -8.257% 0.52% R
MD                 1,292,858             1,645,428              3,007,545           1,034,331          1,896,833            3,008,460 -24.995% 13.254% 0.03% D
MT                    319,640                 276,255                 607,174               352,014              231,858                602,949 9.197% -19.148% -0.70% R

Doesn’t look like it — NJ is the highest, but the reporting is not as complete for the Senate race. RI just shows >95% reporting for both, so it could be a similar “wait a few weeks for the real numbers” situation.

These stats were updated 03 Dec, 2024.

Ohio Voter Turnout

The current data from https://liveresults.ohiosos.gov/ shows the five biggest counties in Ohio are all in the top ten “bad” voter turnout counties. Ohio’s unofficial turnout is 69.69%. At least so far.

County Registered Voters Ballots Counted Unofficial Voter Turnout Outstanding Absentees Outstanding Provisionals Total Precincts Election Day Precincts Reporting Election Day % Precincts Reporting Metro NonVoter Count
Greene 122,193 49,991 40.91 1,267 2,044 146 146 100 72,204
Lucas 304,907 187,235 61.41 2,856 4,426 303 303 100 Toledo 117,664
Lawrence 43,020 26,586 61.8 239 423 84 84 100 16,434
Cuyahoga 893,801 571,397 63.93 15,697 14,183 967 967 100 Cleveland 322,394
Athens 38,592 24,956 64.67 265 1,537 56 56 100 13,635
Franklin 903,493 592,418 65.57 9,235 19,563 888 888 100 Columbus 311,073
Pike 18,010 12,072 67.03 113 314 22 22 100 5,938
Hamilton 604,178 405,825 67.17 6,360 12,659 562 562 100 Cincinnati 198,352
Montgomery 373,582 251,763 67.39 4,909 6,200 381 381 100 Dayton 121,825
Scioto 45,434 30,666 67.5 247 1,041 77 77 100 14,766

No Taxes on Tips / Over-Time / etc?

I’m curious if “no taxes” means no taxes or just no income tax (well, probably state tax … but that’s not something the federal government can easily control). When I was trying to support myself on minimum wage, it wasn’t federal income tax that was eating up my paycheck. It was some FICA thing — which I quickly learned was what funded social security and medicare.

Either reducing “taxes” isn’t going to have as big an impact for lower income people as they might expect or they’re talking about impacting people’s future retirement benefits. Because — reducing the earnings could very well reduce your future social security income too.

https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10024.pdf

It may be nice, today, not to pay taxes on that income … but if your $2/hr income is what is used to determine your retirement payments, that’s going to suck!

Springfield

Governor DeWine had an editorial in the NY Times this morning — https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/20/opinion/springfield-haitian-migrants-ohio.html — he starts out OK. Essentially I’ve got a history in that area, I know the area, and I know this nonsense to be untrue. But then he says he still supports Trump because of the horrible problems with immigration elsewhere.

Without mentioning that a bipartisan attempt to do something got scuttled by the very guy I am telling you will fix it.

Worse – without thinking maybe some of those reports are made up or embellished like this situation has been? If I know first-hand what is going on in Springfield, and I know that Trump’s portrayal of it is wildly inaccurate? Why wouldn’t I question how accurate his depiction of Colorado or even the Mexican border is?!?

They just let you steal!

This is another case of simplifying a complex situation to make someone look bad: Cali lets you walk right out if you are stealing $950 or less. And ignoring the real problem (if you want to have all of these crimes investigated and prosecuted, your local/state taxes need to go up so departments can staff accordingly and enough jails can be built to house all of these criminals).

Every state has a law that differentiates between misdemeanor theft and felony theft. e.g. https://law.justia.com/codes/arkansas/title-5/subtitle-4/chapter-36/subchapter-1/section-5-36-103/ for Arkansas at $1000. I think most people would agree that someone who steals ten dollars worth of merchandise and someone who steals three grand worth of merchandise should get different punishments. Punishments are generally defined along with the classification of the crime. And each state’s law reflects this. Different states have different dollar amounts — and $950 sounds like a lot of money. But compared to the other states? California’s demarcation is pretty middle of the pack.

Unfortunately the entire criminal justice system is overloaded. Police may be too busy to deal with your theft complaint. The prosecutor may not get around to filing charges. And what happens if they do get a conviction? Now we need to find somewhere to detain the thief. And, again, if there’s a person stealing cars, a person kidnapping minors, and a person stealing the latest video game … ideally, we’d have resources to punish all of them. But we don’t. And I’d be way more upset if the kidnapper skated because they had a task force down at the GameStop gathering video from all the surrounding stores to track down this thief.

Prop 47 absolutely has some flaws. There’s a Prop 36 this year that seems like an attempt to fix some of the unintended consequences — two or more theft charges under $950 would be a felony. Stealing from multiple places that add up to over $950 would be a felony. Won’t know if that passes until November, but it’s not like all the liberals are dancing around saying this was 100% perfect and everyone else should do it too.

 

Alabama: $500
Alaska: $750
Arizona: $1,000
Arkansas: $1,000
California: $950
Colorado: $2,000
Connecticut: $2,000
Delaware: $1,500
Florida: $750
Georgia: $1,500
Hawaii: $750
Idaho: $1,000
Illinois: $500
Indiana: $750
Iowa: $300
Kansas: $1,500
Kentucky: $1,000
Louisiana: $1,000
Maine: $1,000
Maryland: $1,500
Massachusetts: $1,200
Michigan: $1,000
Minnesota: $1,000
Mississippi: $1,000
Missouri: $750
Montana: $1,500
Nebraska: $1,500
Nevada: $1,200
New Hampshire: $1,000
New Jersey: $200
New Mexico: $500
New York: $1,000
North Carolina: $1,000
North Dakota: $1,000
Ohio: $1,000
Oklahoma: $1,000
Oregon: $1,000
Pennsylvania: $2,000
Rhode Island: $1,500
South Carolina: $2,000
South Dakota: $1,000
Tennessee: $1,000
Texas: $2,500
Utah: $1,500
Vermont: $900
Virginia: $1,000
Washington: $750
West Virginia: $1,000
Wisconsin: $2,500
Wyoming: $1,000

Why so militant

Someone asked why some feminists are so anti-anything-feminine. I think a silly analogy makes it easier to understand:

If there were a law that required everyone to eat pizza for dinner every day, and a whole freedom movement evolved to ensure we could all pick our own dinner? I expect some people would be so adverse to pizza as to never eat it again. Electing to eat pizza (because I love pizza, just not every day) could be seen as an insult to the Dinner Liberation movement.

Viewing the movement as action so you never had to eat pizza again rather than action so you could chose from the entire world of options including the one that had formerly been forced upon you.