Tag: 2024 election

Disingenuous outrage

Those partaking in the disingenuous outrage about the Biden pardon (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/12/02/hunter-biden-presidential-pardon-comparisons/) want to ignore the very loud call to partake in witch hunts against the current administration, their families, their friends, their supporters. And the fact that some making these calls now have the means to bring them about. Real witch hunts.

From the article: “The Nixon pardon is the only precedent in modern times for such a broad pardon, which purports to insulate Hunter Biden from prosecution for crimes that have not even been charged,” said Margaret Love, who served as U.S. pardon attorney under Bush and Bill Clinton.

Insulation is the entire point — he won’t spend the next four (or more) years paying lawyers to defend him against whatever nonsense partisan DoJ officials dream up.

Bullet Ballots

We’ve seen posts from a few people questioning the integrity of the election results. Some are vague — the fact that Republican operatives were able to copy data from voting machines and then spend a few years possibly looking at how to exploit them is certainly a valid concern, but there’s not data available to prove or dispute this. One, however, has analysis of votes cast. https://substack.com/inbox/post/151721941 from Stephen Spoonamore.

So I started pulling numbers — drop-off votes, I presume, are where the presidential candidate far outperformed down-ballot same-party candidates. That seems … plausible. A high number of “bullet ballots”, however, could be worrisome. And that, it seems, could be constructed from public data. How many people voted for president? How many voted for a Senator? Now, this doesn’t work if the state didn’t have a Senate election. (NC had a governor race, so I’m including that as well). I’m sure some people show up to vote for the top and are done. Spoonamore even says this happens – they’ve got stats for previous elections.

Do the number of people who voted for someone as the president v/s the number of people who voted for someone for senate fall outside a reasonable range?

State  Senate – Repub   Senate – Dem   Senate – Total   Pres – Repub   Pres – Dem   Pres – Total   %R   %D   %Tot   Pres Party   Notes 
NJ                 1,767,773             2,151,322              4,015,343           1,966,571          2,218,074            4,268,422 10.109% 3.009% 5.93% D 86% reporting senate, 91% reporting pres
RI                    195,919                 293,288                 489,207               214,406              285,156                510,749 8.622% -2.852% 4.22% D
IN                 1,659,416             1,097,061              2,829,710           1,720,347          1,163,587            2,933,684 3.542% 5.717% 3.54% R
CA                 6,303,942             9,026,904           15,330,846           6,072,371          9,266,468          15,842,804 -3.814% 2.585% 3.23% D
CT                    679,799             1,002,049              1,711,215               739,638              994,549            1,763,712 8.090% -0.754% 2.98% D
OH                 2,812,778             2,599,761              5,602,804           3,180,116          2,533,699            5,765,017 11.551% -2.607% 2.81% R
NY                 3,155,521             4,491,802              7,686,522           3,484,126          4,413,632            7,897,758 9.431% -1.771% 2.67% D
ME                    277,873                   84,819                 799,861               372,323              431,915                821,382 25.368% 80.362% 2.62% D Independent won Senate race
WA                 1,549,187             2,252,578              3,801,765           1,530,924          2,245,849            3,898,837 -1.193% -0.300% 2.49% D
NM                    405,995                 497,346                 903,341               423,405              478,813                923,458 4.112% -3.871% 2.18% D
DE                    197,742                 283,273                 500,750               214,351              289,758                511,697 7.749% 2.238% 2.14% D
WY                    198,371                   63,706                 262,077               192,633                70,527                267,353 -2.979% 9.671% 1.97% R
TN                 1,916,591             1,027,428              3,005,522           1,964,499          1,055,069            3,062,922 2.439% 2.620% 1.87% R
MN                 1,291,725             1,792,474              3,186,151           1,519,032          1,656,979            3,240,913 14.964% -8.177% 1.69% D
UT                    914,667                 464,504              1,463,139               883,768              562,549            1,487,882 -3.496% 17.429% 1.66% R
NC                 2,241,308             3,069,506              5,591,558           2,898,428          2,715,380            5,679,658 22.672% -13.041% 1.55% R Governor – Mark Robinson race
MI                 2,693,680             2,712,686              5,577,183           2,816,636          2,736,533            5,662,504 4.365% 0.871% 1.51% R
NH*                    434,857                 360,144                 811,120               395,346              417,544                822,528 -9.994% 13.747% 1.39% D Governor
NV                    677,046                 701,105              1,464,728               751,205              705,197            1,484,840 9.872% 0.580% 1.35% R
NE                    498,228                 435,743                 933,971               563,866              369,819                946,041 11.641% -17.826% 1.28% R
FL                 5,977,706             4,603,077           10,757,415           6,110,125          4,683,038          10,893,547 2.167% 1.707% 1.25% R
AZ                 1,595,761             1,676,335              3,347,964           1,770,242          1,582,860            3,389,319 9.856% -5.905% 1.22% R
MO                 1,646,686             1,236,505              2,959,514           1,750,625          1,199,751            2,991,373 5.937% -3.063% 1.07% R
MS                    761,833                 450,718              1,212,551               746,305              465,357            1,225,239 -2.081% 3.146% 1.04% R
VA                 2,019,822             2,416,698              4,436,520           2,075,009          2,335,076            4,482,177 2.660% -3.495% 1.02% D
PA                 3,399,571             3,384,431              6,963,694           3,543,609          3,423,287            7,034,768 4.065% 1.135% 1.01% R
MA                 1,365,445             2,041,693              3,419,392           1,251,308          2,126,545            3,453,459 -9.121% 3.990% 0.99% D
VT                    116,512                 229,542                 363,234               119,392              235,792                366,399 2.412% 2.651% 0.86% D
WI                 1,643,692             1,672,647              3,387,420           1,697,784          1,668,077            3,415,154 3.186% -0.274% 0.81% R
TX                 5,990,744             5,031,479           11,289,280           6,393,598          4,835,297          11,380,171 6.301% -4.057% 0.80% R
WV                    514,079                 207,548                 756,925               533,556              214,309                762,390 3.650% 3.155% 0.72% R
ND                    241,569                 121,602                 363,171               246,505              112,327                365,059 2.002% -8.257% 0.52% R
MD                 1,292,858             1,645,428              3,007,545           1,034,331          1,896,833            3,008,460 -24.995% 13.254% 0.03% D
MT                    319,640                 276,255                 607,174               352,014              231,858                602,949 9.197% -19.148% -0.70% R

Doesn’t look like it — NJ is the highest, but the reporting is not as complete for the Senate race. RI just shows >95% reporting for both, so it could be a similar “wait a few weeks for the real numbers” situation.

These stats were updated 03 Dec, 2024.

Ohio Voter Turnout

The current data from https://liveresults.ohiosos.gov/ shows the five biggest counties in Ohio are all in the top ten “bad” voter turnout counties. Ohio’s unofficial turnout is 69.69%. At least so far.

County Registered Voters Ballots Counted Unofficial Voter Turnout Outstanding Absentees Outstanding Provisionals Total Precincts Election Day Precincts Reporting Election Day % Precincts Reporting Metro NonVoter Count
Greene 122,193 49,991 40.91 1,267 2,044 146 146 100 72,204
Lucas 304,907 187,235 61.41 2,856 4,426 303 303 100 Toledo 117,664
Lawrence 43,020 26,586 61.8 239 423 84 84 100 16,434
Cuyahoga 893,801 571,397 63.93 15,697 14,183 967 967 100 Cleveland 322,394
Athens 38,592 24,956 64.67 265 1,537 56 56 100 13,635
Franklin 903,493 592,418 65.57 9,235 19,563 888 888 100 Columbus 311,073
Pike 18,010 12,072 67.03 113 314 22 22 100 5,938
Hamilton 604,178 405,825 67.17 6,360 12,659 562 562 100 Cincinnati 198,352
Montgomery 373,582 251,763 67.39 4,909 6,200 381 381 100 Dayton 121,825
Scioto 45,434 30,666 67.5 247 1,041 77 77 100 14,766

On The Coup

We have reached a point where Dick Cheney is making an appearance on the House floor to support his daughter in her belief that attempting a coup is, well, not the pinnacle of American democracy?!?

For a long time, I absolutely believed both parties in the United States thought they were trying to do the right thing for the country. I remember going to a rally against privatizing social security — one of Bush 2’s early initiatives. The local NPR station had a reporter meandering around looking for younger people to interview — looking, specifically, for people who were worried that their retirement wouldn’t include social security. I, on the other hand, knew the history of the social security system. It was started after people lost huge sums of money — some more money than they had (thanks, leveraged buying) in a stock market downturn. The basis of social security is, essentially, that you can realize greater returns in riskier investments. But you can also lose everything in riskier investments, and this program is the backstop against “losing everything”. In that context, how is it reasonable to consider allowing individuals to direct social security funds into riskier investments because they might be able to outperform government bonds?!? But … I got it. We were decades away from the great depression, and years before the crash of 2008/2009. Most people had only experienced upward movement in the market. And the question at hand was really “is this form of insurance against stock market crashes still worth it?”. I could look at pretty much any political debate and understand how both sides had a coherent argument and viewed their position as The Right Thing To Do.

Maybe that’s still true today — but it seems like conservatives have become more adamant about forcing their will on the nation to retain power. To make money. We watched a dude on MSNBC basically admit to participating in a coup attempt not because he was ashamed of his actions. Not because he wanted to make sure everyone understood what exactly happened. But because he wanted to sell his new book. Well, mission accomplished (I guess). He’s managed to get his name out there & we all know he’s got a book. Liberals can buy it to prove there was a coup and conservatives can buy it to see “the receipts” on stealing an election. (Receipts which have been promised on multiple occasions but which have never been produced).

I’m still hopeful that the end result of this mess is a viable third (fourth, or even fifth) party. Maybe some actual fiscal conservatives (not deficit spending dumped into the military industrial complex v/s tax for domestic spending). Some democratic socialist party that makes Bernie seem pretty middle-of-the-road.