Trump’s election-night speech (and several of his subsequent prepared addresses) call for unity – working together, finding a common ground, restoring trust … but what I realize I am not hearing (apart from his unscripted interviews where he seems to say all of his campaign promises are bull and he’s actually willing to listen to facts) is that coming together doesn’t mean embracing his position. I’ve had friends whose idea of compromise was that YOU compromise and do what they want. Not fun people to be around, but a terrible position for government. Basically I don’t care that there were 3 million more of you … I won, so fuck off. Try to get Congress back and stop me in a few years. That’d not unity, it’s repression. Works for a while, but not sustainable. But that’s bringing business acumen to governance – short term gains that make me look good, what happens in four or eight years is the next guy’s problem. I’ll be retired, rich, and well-renown.
Category: Politics
Health Care Cost Comparisons
I recently happened across a cost comparison tool on my health insurance company’s web site. It isn’t something they advertise or promote … and I’m not sure why. You answer a bunch of questions (I really wish I could enter the diagnostic code for the procedure instead of navigating through questions), then you pick what service you need. It provides a list of covered providers in an area and the estimated cost of service. The difference in the cost of an MRI is HUNDREDS of dollars. I expected there to be some variance – real estate costs more in some areas than others if nothing else. But I was seeing some services – physical therapy for one – where the low price was a third of the high price.
Why isn’t this information available to everyone? Would our health care costs be reduced if people were somewhat cognizant of costs at different facilities? (Either because they’d select cheaper facilities or because the more expensive facilities would have to lower their prices or justify their exorbitant cost). I see the same kind of cost inflation in other insurance-covered verticals — car repair, dentistry, eye care. As soon as the price becomes hidden … there’s a fairly logical assumption that it’s not that much different from provider to provider. I don’t know how much a service is going to cost until it’s already been completed, the provider bills insurance, and insurance provides the explanation of benefits. Not exactly conducive to comparing costs!
There are other “not my money” situations that don’t lead to out of control costs. SNAP comes to mind – although the percentage of people buying food with SNAP may be low enough to not impact prices … I can look at grocery store fliers, decide if it’s worth the extra time and travel to hit multiple shops, and plan my meals for a week or two around what’s on sale. There might be a special price for a loyalty card holder (i.e. someone willing to trade some privacy for savings), but there aren’t a dozen different prices for different customers. And you know the price BEFORE you eat the food. Could you even imagine shopping if you only knew the price as you checked out?! And even then … you could still put it back.
Hopefully UMR’s price comparison tool becomes a common thing within the insurance industry — emergency situations may mean uninformed decisions … but if I’m going in next week for some tests, the order can be written a day or two later whilst I research the options and decide on the best value for me.
Pipelines And Registries
A few weeks ago, requests to “check in” around the Standing Rock protest was circulating Facebook. It presupposes that one shares such information with strangers – perhaps that is the norm. It also presupposes that law enforcement peruses those check-ins. The whole thing reminded me of a discussion of ghosts that I had whilst touring the Bryn Mawr College campus — the student with whom I was walking casually crossed the street, pointed to a house a few houses down on the side of the street that we had been strolling down, and mentioned that the house is supposed to be haunted. Of course, she continued, being a worldy University student she didn’t believe in such things. Just the same, it didn’t actually take effort to walk down the other side of the street … worst case you did something for no reason, best case you avoided the ghosts.
Checking in at Standing Rock sounded pretty much the same to me – didn’t cost me anything, aside from potentially confusing someone who saw my location it didn’t harm anything … may have been a pointless action, or maybe it stopped police from being able to use social media data to research protesters.
I keep seeing a Muslim registry being suggested — in seriousness, not in the Godwin’s Law / serial numbers tattooed on arms sort of way. I wonder how many people who are willing to check-in at Standing Rock would also be willing to volunteer for the additional scrutiny that I’m sure membership in the Muslim registry gets you. The efficacy of the registry is a question of resource allocation — if a few thousand people register nationwide (say, Imams who are already well known), then the resources involved in making their lives miserable are relatively few. If half of the country registers as Muslim … either our new government will solve unemployment (double the national debt in the process, but who cares about a debt ceiling when it’s your party doing the spending?) by hiring a few million people to monitor self-professed Muslims or “additional scrutiny” becomes an increased probability in the IRS audit flag algorithm.
Poor People Rights
Decades ago, someone rather hostility questioned … well, what they assumed to be my stance on abortion since it wasn’t like we’d ever had a conversation even tangentially related to abortion. They demanded to know why I, as a women, wouldn’t support women’s rights. Women’s rights?!? I asked. You’re talking about *poor people’s* rights.
You don’t need to discuss a controversial procedure like abortion or euthanasia. Consider a hypothetical scenario where LASIK eye surgery is outlawed in the United States. Medical tourism is already a thing in SouthEast Asia – so anyone who wants their vision surgically corrected now needs a week off from work, a couple grand to cover the flight and hotel, and a couple more grand to cover the surgery. It isn’t like the immigration officer is going to be issuing eye exams to determine if your vision when you left matches your arrival (or you fake the exam). Which means outlawing LASIK has only prevented people without significant disposable income from undergoing the procedure.
Removing a federal regulation allowing something and leaving each individual state maintain its own policy just lowers the cash/time requirements. It’s cheaper and quicker to pop over to California than Thailand.
Trump’s 20/20 interview brought this discussion to mind — while he says same-sex marriage has been decided by the supreme court and is unlikely to be overturned (it’s hard to find someone who has sustained ‘personal and individual’ injury by someone else’s marriage and therefore has standing to initiate a suit, so I’ll give him that) he also thinks Row should be overturned (I suspect the male parent could argue standing) and each state should have the power to decide for themselves . To decide what the poorer people who live in their state can or cannot do is the part that gets omitted from the debate.
I wonder, too, if there’s not some even subconscious belief that people are poor because of bad decisions. It’s OK that affluent people can avail themselves to the procedure — they can be trusted to make good decisions. It’s really just the poor people, whose poor decision making is evidenced by their economic situation, about whom we need to concern ourselves.
A friend of mine once observed that people who are out there LOUDLY proclaiming what God wants … odd how God’s will always follows that individual’s ideas too. The God Hates Fags folks who are sure the whole Luke 6:37 (“Judge not, and ye shall not be judged: condemn not, and ye shall not be condemned: forgive, and ye shall be forgiven”) thing doesn’t apply too condemning others based on their sexual preferences. Wasn’t the whole manifest destiny God’s will that the USA spread out to the Pacific?
Shocked
I sincerely hope my fear of Trump’s plans prove to be unfounded — hopefully he’s been playing a part during the primaries and general election. Over the top promises made as an act, not because he actually plans to ban Muslims and Mexicans en toto. Or create the Great Wall Prime. Or racial profiling. Or religious tests for entry into the country. Or stop-and-frisk. Or launching military action when another country’s navy makes rude gestures at our sailors. Or any number of outlandish statements he’s made.
And if the current vote totals stay similar once every vote has come in, I hope this is enough to end the electoral college system. If Bush/Gore was not sufficient, I don’t hold out much hope. Especially since I don’t see ANYONE talking about the POPULAR vote where Clinton is leading. The focus is all on the EC points – but I don’t see anyone asking why the EC is there in the first place. But maybe, once the final numbers come in, focus will shift to the system that allows someone to have more votes than their competitors and lose the election.
Walls
I find the idea of a wall to stop illegal immigration to be … beyond silly. As a military barricade — that is, to prevent large-scale movements across a border — it can be effective (it can also be completely INeffective, see: Maginot Line). But if there were thousands of people marching across the Mexican/Texan desert, we could watch for heat signatures & deploy border patrol to intercept. Illegal immigration won’t look like a Mongol army marching across the steppes.
Reviewing walls that have been erected throughout history, the only truly effective method to prevent small scale involves a lot of manpower and a dead-zone. The fourth generation Berlin Wall is a good example of an effective stop to emmigration. But it had over 100 watchtowers in less than 100 miles and several bunkers housing the troops who guarded the wall. There were also two walls with a “death strip” in the middle – material that provided no cover or camouflage for anyone attempting to sneak across. Scaling the Berlin Wall configuration to a 2,000 mile border would require thousands of additional border guards, twice as much material as a single wall, and more than twice the land. Still wouldn’t stop persons wishing to illegally enter the United States from taking to waterways and entering through California and the Gulf coast states. To say nothing of people who come in through proper channels and simply overstay their visa.
But let’s assume that a significant portion of illegal immigration does come by land across the Mexican border at points that are not proper border crossings. For far less than the low-ball estimated cost of a wall being provided, we could have fifty thousand of autonomous drones (I’ve watched enough movies to advocate for unarmed drones) and solar charging stations. Existing border patrol agents would be notified when a target is acquired. Because we have SO many drones available, when a drone acquires a target it would signal for a new patrol drone to launch and then track the target until a border patrol agent detains the person.
If we’re that worried about people tunneling under to avoid detection, add drones with ground penetrating radar. If we’re worried about people coming in through Baja or Corpus Christi, extend the drone patrol line up the coast.
I don’t know if this proposed wall is meant to be a monument to American power (silly, but that’s kind of what the Great Wall is in China) or the sort of WPA project that Republicans actually like. But as an effective deterrent to illegal border crossings, it is an enormous waste of money, resources, time, and space.
Bad Deal
A friend of mine posted a graphic that basically said ten years and six trillion dollars later, we’ve got ISIS in Iraq instead of Hussein and we’ve got the Taliban in Afghanistan instead of … oh, wait, the Taliban. I understand the six trillion dollar figure looks at long term costs for veteran care *and* direct costs of the occupation. Still, the graphic got me to wondering — could we have simply purchased the country for the amount of money we will eventually spend? Iraq is 108,000,000 acres. That’s an average of 33,333$ per acre — now there are some fertile areas, some developed areas … which may well go for more than 30k per acre. But there’s a lot of desert too – not in an oil rich area – which wouldn’t go for anything like 30k an acre.
Population is something like 33,420,000 people. We could have saved near a trillion dollars ( 987,000,000,000) by giving each person in Iraq 150,000$ to do whatever we asked of them. Sure, a few would have held out … but if the alternative clearly was a foreign invasion and no 150k, I’m thinking we could have literally overthrown a government by just bribing the citizens to revolt.
Real People
When I was in college, I went out to a bar with some friends. They had a friend, who had graduated a year or two previously, visiting; this guy came out with us. This friend-of-a-friend and I were sitting at a table while everyone else was getting a drink, and the guy said he wanted to meet a beautiful girl like me … but he doesn’t know how to approach one. What, he asked me, would be the best “pick up line”? To which I quickly answered “Hi, I’m Eric”. Why is speaking to a cute girl different than talking to any other human being?
I subsequently learned that, indeed, young attractive women are treated a lot differently — the sort of things people assume are acceptable make the 2005 ‘grab them by the pussy’ recording … well, not surprising. My office at the University had been a photography darkroom. It had two separate rooms — an antechamber and the darkroom part. A friend of mine and I were in the darkroom part, and she was on the phone with someone. Glenn, one of my work-study students came in to speak with me. Not wanting to interrupt her conversation, I asked him to come into the antechamber. He proceeded to back me into a chair, physically restrain me by sitting on me, and kiss me on the mouth. My rather loud entreaty for my friend to come into the other room was met with an annoyed “I’m on the PHONE”. Luckily she finished her call before the student got beyond unwanted kissing, and he backed off when he heard her walking.
And to people who say “but no one reported it happening, so it didn’t happen”. I didn’t report the student either — there’s no evidence. There’s nothing beyond my say-so. And I’m sure he’s going to say it never happened. And that’s a scenario where I at least knew the person. Random guys at a club who take similar liberties — how would that work? Gently move his hand from my crotch to the table, then ask for his name and number? Remove yourself from the situation, and make sure a friend stays close to you at the club — that was my realistic solution.
Loopholes
When Mitt Romney was running for President, I recall some disclosure about his 401(k) value — something like 20-100 million dollars. The guy was like 65 years old. Even if he’d started contributing in 1978 & dropped in the full 30k you could do at the time … that’d be 1.2 mil in contributions over the course of his lifetime. Which is an amazing rate of return if you factor in normal market performance over the 34 years. Contribution limits sure aren’t 30k per year anymore! How do you get tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in an account? You get a special class of stock priced at one penny, put in 15k worth of it (1,500,000 shares) into your 401(k). And then revalue the stock at 10$ a share. Giving you 15 million dollars when there’s a 15k contribution limit.
Donald Trump’s billion dollar loss (great business acumen, huh?) — assuming it was a legit loss (and I think we know why the guy gets audited every year. If he’s still carrying forward his billion dollar loss … he’s got something funky on each return that may well flag it for audit) and it’s actually debt (not just loss of value) — where is that debt? That’s what reminded me of Romney’s 401(k) … if you are dealing with internal funny money, can you then proceed to buy that debt for pennies on the dollar (I’ll sell you this billion dollars of debt for a mere million dollars) and then never attempt to collect it? The debt still exists, your earnings are tax free as they are offset by that loss … but really there isn’t even debt.
Tax End Run
Donald Trump’s massive tax deduction explains why he so wants to get rid of estate taxes — you can take depreciation on buildings *but* you get bit when you sell the property (if I bought it for 1 million, took a quarter mil in depreciation, but then sold the thing for 2 million dollars … your net gain is 1.25 million dollars). Or when you die and it goes through probate.
*But* if we get rid of the estate tax … then someone without financial need to sell their buildings can avoid taxes due to depreciation, hand the properties over to their beneficiaries without incurring tax … and, bonus, those beneficiaries can continue writing off depreciation against their earnings.