{"id":8112,"date":"2021-08-08T18:17:50","date_gmt":"2021-08-08T23:17:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?p=8112"},"modified":"2021-08-10T16:45:22","modified_gmt":"2021-08-10T21:45:22","slug":"math-time-delta-edition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?p=8112","title":{"rendered":"Math Time &#8211; Delta Edition"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>An update to my previous <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?p=8108\">mathematical analysis of covid transmission<\/a> now that I&#8217;ve seen R0 estimates for this delta variant &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>The R0 value for the delta variant <a href=\"https:\/\/newsroom.unsw.edu.au\/news\/health\/what-we-know-about-sars-cov-2-delta-variant\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">seems to be between 5 and 8<\/a>. Looks like just over 46% of the US population is vaccinated. The vaccines are published as being 90-something percent effective. That makes an effective transmission rate between (5 * (1- (0.46 * 0.95))) and (8 * (1- (0.46 * 0.9))). Between 2.9 and 4.7 &#8212; somewhat surprising given the R0 of slightly under 3 that was published at the start of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. That means that, as health orders and mandates are lifted, we&#8217;re basically exactly where we were a year ago even though about half the population is vaccinated.<\/p>\n<p>A mathematically interesting thing &#8212; if you could get the vaccine efficacy up to 100% (a third shot, a tenth shot, a different vaccine, whatever)? We&#8217;d still have an effective transmission rate between 2.7 and 4.3 &#8212; the value goes down, but not significantly. On the other hand, increasing the percentage of fully vaccinated individuals by 10% gives us an effective rate of transmission between 2.5 and 4.0. Having 70% of the population vaccinated would yield an effective rate of transmission between 1.8 and 3.0. We&#8217;d need to get somewhere between 90 and 98% of the population vaccinated to bring the delta variant&#8217;s effective rate down below 1 (the point where it would die out naturally)!<\/p>\n<p>That tells me this virus is going to be around for a long time &#8212; especially since the R0 for some upcoming variants might be higher. Also, I&#8217;m curious to see if the government authorizes a third dose given the minimal impact increasing efficacy has on the effective rate of spread.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An update to my previous mathematical analysis of covid transmission now that I&#8217;ve seen R0 estimates for this delta variant &#8230; The R0 value for the delta variant seems to be between 5 and 8. Looks like just over 46% of the US population is vaccinated. The vaccines are published as being 90-something percent effective. &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[928],"tags":[920,1441,200,930],"class_list":["post-8112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","tag-covid-19","tag-epidemiology","tag-math","tag-sars-cov-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8112"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8112\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8117,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8112\/revisions\/8117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}