{"id":7075,"date":"2020-09-29T21:55:01","date_gmt":"2020-09-30T02:55:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?p=7075"},"modified":"2020-10-01T12:12:53","modified_gmt":"2020-10-01T17:12:53","slug":"large-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?p=7075","title":{"rendered":"Large Numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s often difficult to conceptualize large numbers &#8212; something that allows statistics dealing with large numbers to convey something other than reality. I think I heard Trump say the government is ready to vaccinate 200k people a day. That sounds like a lot of people (it <em>is<\/em> a lot of people), but there are a <strong><em>lot<\/em><\/strong> of people in the US: an estimated 328.2 million according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&amp;q=population+united+states\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">a quick Google search<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?attachment_id=7076\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-7076\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-7076\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/VaccinationRateMath.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"282\" height=\"98\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s four and a half years to vaccinate the current population of the US at 200k a day, every day. Which doesn&#8217;t take into account new people being born (or aging into the range where a vaccine is administered). The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdc.gov\/nchs\/fastats\/births.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CDC shows 3.79 million births in 2018<\/a> &#8212; of course that number changes every year, and it&#8217;s been decreasing. But at 3.5 million births per year, new people still add a few months to the vaccination timeline. About four and three quarter years to vaccinate the US population. And that assumes a one-dose vaccine. Administering two doses to everyone, at 200k people per year, would take just under ten years. Saying &#8216;it could take us five years to vaccinate everyone&#8217; isn&#8217;t nearly as impressive sounding as &#8216;we can administer 200,000 vaccines each day&#8217; &#8212; but it&#8217;s the same thing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s often difficult to conceptualize large numbers &#8212; something that allows statistics dealing with large numbers to convey something other than reality. I think I heard Trump say the government is ready to vaccinate 200k people a day. That sounds like a lot of people (it is a lot of people), but there are a &hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[928,41],"tags":[1143,930],"class_list":["post-7075","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","category-politics","tag-2020-debate","tag-sars-cov-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7075","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7075"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7075\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7077,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7075\/revisions\/7077"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7075"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7075"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7075"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}