{"id":6187,"date":"2020-04-03T07:37:19","date_gmt":"2020-04-03T12:37:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?p=6187"},"modified":"2020-04-07T12:20:29","modified_gmt":"2020-04-07T17:20:29","slug":"is-it-helping","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?p=6187","title":{"rendered":"Is it helping?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Schools in Ohio have been closed since 17 March (and a lot of districts stayed home on 16 March). Restaurants have been in delivery and carry-out mode for about the same length of time. We’ve been under a stay at home order since 24 March. And the important question is … is it helping? That’s a difficult question to answer because epidemiological predictions have very broad ranges because most of their inputs are so unknown … and the limited testing makes the data being compared wildly inaccurate. But we’ve only got the data we’ve got, so I thought I’d run some comparisons to see how Ohio is faring.<\/p>\n

I selected the four states closest to Ohio in population — PA, IL, GA, and NC. Because these states all identified their first case well before Ohio, I added CT because the first case identified there was 08-Mar and Ohio’s first cases appear on 09-Mar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
State<\/strong><\/td>\n1st Case<\/strong><\/td>\nPopulation<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
PA<\/td>\n6-Mar<\/td>\n12,801,989<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IL<\/td>\npre 4-Mar<\/td>\n12,671,821<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
OH<\/td>\n9-Mar<\/td>\n11,689,100<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
GA<\/td>\npre 4-Mar<\/td>\n10,617,423<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NC<\/td>\npre 4-Mar<\/td>\n10,488,084<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CT<\/td>\n8-Mar<\/td>\n3,565,287<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

It looks like our curve is flattened — although North Carolina, where the first infection was identified earlier than Ohio and their their stay at home order was issued on on 27 March, has identified a thousand fewer cases as of yesterday.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Is proximity to NYC a major factor? CT and PA (as well as NJ, which has a relatively high number of cases) are all right there<\/em>. But Georgia and Illinois are farther away from NYC than Ohio. Is the number of tests a factor in these case numbers? I’d expected a higher correlation between the number of identified cases and the number of tests administered. GA and CT have fewer total test reports (positive + negative tests) and have more infected people. NC has more reported tests, but fewer cases than OH. PA and IL have more reported tests and more infected people.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Schools in Ohio have been closed since 17 March (and a lot of districts stayed home on 16 March). Restaurants have been in delivery and carry-out mode for about the same length of time. We’ve been under a stay at home order since 24 March. And the important question is … is it helping? That’s …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[928],"tags":[929,920,930],"class_list":["post-6187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-covid-19","tag-coronavirus","tag-covid-19","tag-sars-cov-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6187"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6187\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6238,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6187\/revisions\/6238"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}