{"id":6066,"date":"2020-03-07T22:59:14","date_gmt":"2020-03-08T03:59:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?p=6066"},"modified":"2020-03-07T13:14:30","modified_gmt":"2020-03-07T18:14:30","slug":"more-on-conspiracy-theories-and-the-democratic-primary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/?p=6066","title":{"rendered":"More on conspiracy theories and the Democratic Primary"},"content":{"rendered":"

Statistical analysis can make you suspicious — ‘black swan’ statistical outliers (which are still possible<\/em> outcomes) and amazing coincidences where outlier possibilities are reality. Maybe it’s more fun to think about the conspiracy theory possibilities — there’s drama and intrigue. Whereas an unlikely occurrence happening because unlikely doesn’t mean impossible … that’s far less entertaining.<\/p>\n

The Super Tuesday results are still not complete today. Where are results still pending? There are 115 delegates not yet allocated to a candidate. 13 of these are classed as “Democrats Abroad” — saying that the results for “Democrats Abroad” is outstanding because ballots are still in the post is reasonable. I’d expect a large portion of “Democrats Abroad” ballots to\u00a0 be posted (although there are evidently like 400 in-person polling sites too). And I don’t know how “Abroad” they’re talking about — Canada? Germany? Australia? McMurdo Station? The ISS? I’m willing to remove these delegates from the Super Tuesday list (IIRC, their in-person voting spanned a week coming up to Super Tuesday too). Of the remaining 102 delegates, one<\/em> is from a state where Biden is in the lead. Not quite 1% of the outstanding delegates are in a state where Biden is in the lead. Is it possible<\/em> that this outlier is an amazing coincidence? Sure. But could the DNC be creating a narrative where Biden has a decent lead in the electoral count ahead of voting this coming Tuesday with the intent of influencing voters (some 60% of whom say electability is more important than the fact the candidate agrees with them about issues)? Hard not to go there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
State<\/strong><\/td>\nWinner<\/strong><\/td>\nDelegates<\/strong><\/td>\nUnallocated Delegates<\/strong><\/td>\n% Unallocated<\/strong><\/td>\nBiden<\/strong><\/td>\nBloomberg<\/strong><\/td>\nGabbard<\/strong><\/td>\nSanders<\/strong><\/td>\nWarren<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alabama<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n52<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arkansas<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n17<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maine<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Massachusetts<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n91<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n37<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n29<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Minnesota<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n75<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n38<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
North Carolina<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n110<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n67<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n37<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oklahoma<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n37<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tennessee<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n64<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n2%<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n19<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Texas<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n228<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n111<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n102<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Virginia<\/td>\nBiden<\/td>\n99<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n66<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
American Samoa<\/td>\nBloomberg<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
California<\/td>\nSanders<\/td>\n415<\/td>\n61<\/td>\n15%<\/td>\n148<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n186<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Colorado<\/td>\nSanders<\/td>\n67<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n40%<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Utah<\/td>\nSanders<\/td>\n29<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n45%<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vermont<\/td>\nSanders<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0%<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Statistical analysis can make you suspicious — ‘black swan’ statistical outliers (which are still possible outcomes) and amazing coincidences where outlier possibilities are reality. Maybe it’s more fun to think about the conspiracy theory possibilities — there’s drama and intrigue. Whereas an unlikely occurrence happening because unlikely doesn’t mean impossible … that’s far less entertaining. …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[41],"tags":[924,923],"class_list":["post-6066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics","tag-2020-democratic-primary","tag-democratic-primary"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6066"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6069,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6066\/revisions\/6069"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rushworth.us\/lisa\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}